[8월 금융시장 동향]

● 8월중 국내 금융시장은 한·미 기준금리 인하가 가시화됨에 따라 국고채 금리와 원달러 환율이 하락하고, 증시는 월초반 경기침체 우려 영향으로 약세

[최근 금융시장 주요 현안]

● 미 연준의 금리 인하 임박과 관련하여 과거 다섯 차례 인하 사이클에서 보여진 국내외 금융시장의 반응을 살펴보고, 한은의 통화정책과 관련하여 경각심이 높아진 국내 가계부채 증가 현황을 점검(상세한 내용은 본문 참조)

[9월 금융시장 전망]

● 9월중 국내 금융시장은 미 연준의 기준금리 인하가 개시됨에 따라 국고채 금리와 원달러 환율이 추가 하락하고, 주식시장은 반등할 전망

I. 8월 금융시장 동향 ············································································· 1

[참고: 8.22일 한국은행 금통위 결정 내용] ·············································· 2

[참고: 파월 연준 의장의 잭슨홀 미팅 연설에 대한 평가] ···················· 3

II. 최근 금융시장 주요 현안 ································································ 4

① 미국 금리 인하 시기별 국내외 금융시장 움직임 비교 ······················ 4

② 가계대출 급증에 따른 정책 당국의 대응 강화 ····································· 9

III. 9월 금융시장 전망 ········································································ 11

[붙임1] 주요국 거시경제 지표 추이 ·························································· 14

[붙임2] 국내외 금리·환율·주가 추이 ························································· 1