● 8~10월 실물지표는 글로벌 델타 변이 확산, 국내 사회적 거리두기 강화, 건설투자 부진에도 불구하고, 수출·설비투자가 개선세를 이어가고, 백신 접종 확대, 재난지원금 지급에 힘입어 소비가 반등할 전망

- 주요국의 백신 접종 가속화, 비대면 경제 확대 등으로 수출이 견조한 회복세를 지속하는 가운데, 국내 제조업 생산과 설비투자도 IT·비IT 부문이 고르게 개선

- 사회적 거리두기 연장(7.12일~10.3일)에 따른 소비심리 위축에도 불구하고, 백신 접종 가속화, 5차 재난지원금 지급, 대면 소비 수요의 비대면 전환, 고용개선으로 7월 일시적으로 부진했던 소비가 8~9월 중 반등

- 다만, 건설수주 감소, 차량용 반도체 수급차질 우려가 경기 회복의 제약요인으로 작용할 가능성 상존

Ⅰ. 8~10월 주요 거시지표 전망 ························································· 1

※참고: 코로나 위기가 생산성에 미치는 영향과 시사점 ···················· 5

[붙임 1] 생산활동·설비투자 동향 ································································· 8

[붙임 2] 대외거래 동향 ················································································ 10

[붙임 3] 소비·고용·물가 동향 ····································································· 12

[붙임 4] 건설·부동산시장 동향 ··································································· 14

[붙임 5] 주요 부문별 2021년 경제 전망 ·················································· 16