[1월 국내 금융시장 동향]

-1월중 국내 금융시장은 한은·연준의 금리 동결을 배경으로 원화와 증시가 강세 전환하고 국고채 금리는 소폭 상승

* 2월초에는 트럼프 관세 뉴스에 따라 금리·환율·주가의 변동성이 확대

[2월 금융시장 전망]

-한국은행은 트럼프 행정부의 관세 인상과 국내 정치불안 등으로 내수 경기의 하방위험이 크게 확대된 상황을 감안하여 2.25일 금통위에서 기준금리를 25bp 인하(3.00% → 2.75%)할 전망

*다만, 원달러 환율이 1,500원을 위협하는 수준까지 급등할 경우에는 금리를 동결할 가능성도 배제하기 어려움

I. 1월 금융시장 동향 ············································································· 1

[참고 1: 1.16일 한국은행 금통위 결정 내용] ·········································· 2

[참고 2: 1.29일 미 연준 FOMC에 대한 평가] ········································ 3

II. 최근 현안: 미 연준 통화정책 여건 변화와 전망 ······················· 4

[참고 3: 현재 미국 금리인하 사이클의 특징] ········································· 8

III. 2월 금융시장 전망 ········································································ 10

[붙임 1] 주요국 거시경제 지표 추이 ························································ 13

[붙임 2] 국내외 금리·환율·주가 추이 ······················································· 14